An entropy maximization model for estimating the origin-destination matrix of an urban train with an impedance function based on travel times

Abstract

A problem in urban rail public transport is the growing demand from users along their route at their boarding points. The analysis of the distribution of trips would serve for a better forecast of the future demand of the system to adapt the potential offer in terms of route design, location of stations, dimensioning of the frequency, size and quantity of wagons, establishment of the ticket value, among other components before the commissioning of urban trains, after which few are monitoring the unbridled growth in demand and urban train improvements. Given this, in order to reduce the uncertainty in estimating demand, the entropy maximization model was applied due to its advantages in relation to other methods that do not take into account variations in land use. In the context of uncertainty theory, the transport model based on uncertain entropy is transformed into its deterministic equivalent, which can be solved with general optimization methods. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the purpose.