Mathematical model to estimate the probability to approve given the first grade at the Escuela Politécnica Nacional

Abstract

Ecuadorian universities must undergo a rigorous process of internal and external evaluation of the quality of education by the Consejo de Evaluación, Acreditación y Aseguramiento de la Calidad del Sistema de Educación Superior (CEAACES). The institutional evaluation model for Higher Education Institutions from Ecuador seek to establish a standard procedure to have a continuous monitoring of the approval’s probability of the students in each of classes. These activities allow academic units to improve their quality management. A logistic regression model was developed using 5 years of historical data, a brief discussion about the pertinence about main variables is also elaborated. A simulation and its results finally are shown, interpretation of the probability results and the estimated number of future student were found.